The latest round of monthly business cycle indicators concludes the results for 2025, providing a preliminary snapshot of economic performance in the fourth quarter of 2025 and for the calendar year.

The year was generally positive, according to selected indicators shown in Figure 1 below. Many indicators were stronger, with decreases recorded for manufacturing, electricity generation, wholesale trade sales and road freight transport.

Manufacturing output retreated by 1,3% in 2025 compared with 2024, representing the second consecutive year of decline. Nine of the ten manufacturing divisions were weaker in 2025. The wood, paper, printing & publishing and iron & steel, metal products & machinery divisions were the most significant negative contributors. Together, they pulled overall growth down by 0,6 percentage points. Textiles & clothing was the only manufacturing division that experienced a positive year, expanding by 0,7%.

The country produced less electricity in 2025, with generation declining by 2,0%. This followed a 4,9% rise in 2024. The second half of 2025 was particularly downbeat. Electricity generation decreased by 1,4% month-on-month in December 2025, representing a fifth straight month of decline.

Wholesale trade sales registered its fourth consecutive year of negative growth, weakening by 1,4% in 2025. Adjusted for inflation, total wholesale trade sales amounted to R2,45 trillion in the year, down from its recent peak of R2,71 trillion in 2021.

On the upside, consumer spending was positive for a second straight year. Retail trade sales expanded by 3,7%, following a 2,5% rise in 2024. Six of the seven retail groups recorded a positive 2025, with general dealers and textiles & clothing the most significant positive contributors. Retailers in food and beverages experienced a decline.

Mining production grew by a marginal 0,1%, following a 0,5% increase in 2024. There was a rise in the production of manganese ore, diamonds, chromium ore, iron ore and nickel. However, the industry produced less copper, platinum-group metals, gold and coal.

Motor trade sales posted a positive 2025 after two consecutive years of decline, expanding by 2,0%. The positive momentum was driven mainly by stronger new vehicle sales.

Shifting focus to the fourth quarter of 2025, decreases were recorded for mining, manufacturing, electricity generation, road freight transport, rail passenger transport and road passenger transport.

The next gross domestic product (GDP) estimates will provide a more comprehensive overview of economic performance for the fourth quarter and for 2025. The GDP estimates will be published at 11h30 on Tuesday, 10 March 2026, and will be available here.

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