Economic data published this month provide preliminary insight into how the South African economy performed in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the calendar year

Winners and losers

The fourth quarter was generally downbeat across selected sectors, with only four keeping their heads above water. Wholesale trade, retail trade, motor trade and rail passenger transport were stronger in the quarter (Figure 1). Performance in the calendar year was mixed, with positive results in mining, electricity generation, retail trade, tourist accommodation, rail freight and rail passenger transport

Retail trade sales expanded by 2,1% in the fourth quarter, with general dealers and retailers specialising in clothing & textiles driving much of the upward momentum. There was, however, a fall in sales for food & beverages and household goods. The miscellaneous category ‘all other retailers’ also recorded a decline.

For the calendar year, retail trade sales grew by 2,5% in 2024 compared with 2023. Five of the seven retail groups were stronger, with general dealers a key driver of growth.

Mining activity was softer in the fourth quarter, dragged lower mainly by manganese ore and iron ore. Platinum group metals and coal were the largest positive contributors, but their influence was not significant enough to push the industry into positive territory. The industry’s expansion in 2024 was mainly driven by chromium ore, platinum group metals and coal.

The manufacturing industry also recorded a decline in the fourth quarter. This was mainly due to lower activity in the production of metals & machinery and motor vehicles & transport equipment. These two divisions also had the biggest drag on manufacturing growth for the calendar year.

The next gross domestic product (GDP) estimates will provide a more comprehensive overview of economic performance for the fourth quarter and for 2024. The GDP data will be published at 11h30 on Tuesday, 4 March 2025, and will be available here.

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