Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) has released a statistical product on small area population estimates at the electoral ward level. The population estimates were produced using Census 2011 and Census 2022 data. This product provides insights into age and sex structure as well as population group dynamics at this level of geography based on 2020 electoral ward boundaries sourced from the Municipal Demarcation Board.

This release follows a comprehensive quality assessment of sub-municipal census data, which informed the development of the Ward-level Small Area Population Estimates. The assessment indicated that census data can exhibit instability at smaller geographic units, such as wards, due to factors including variability in responses, bias, and undercount rates—particularly pronounced in sub-local municipalities.

To generate reliable estimates at the Ward level, Stats SA employed the raking method, also referred to as Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF). This approach uses the population totals from Census 2022 as adjusted through the Post-enumeration Survey, together with population figures from Census 2011, to produce consistent and robust ward-level estimates. A technical note outlining the methodology followed accompanies the release for further details.

The statistical product includes the variables defining the population pyramid:  Five-year age groups, Sex, and Population group, which are the variables that typically enable decision-makers and policy-makers among others to construct further operationally important and analytically relevant indicators such as the suite of dependency ratios, the working-age profile, potential support ratio, aging index, and the demographic labour pressure index.

Earlier this year, Stats SA updated and revised the Census 2022 Municipal Profiles following a thorough assessment of census themes, variables, and geographic layers. These updates enhance the depth, consistency, and usability of Census 2022 information, ensuring that the data remains relevant and accessible to the public, researchers, planners, and policymakers.

The release of the Ward-level Small Area Population Estimates complements these improvements by expanding access to detailed demographic information that supports evidence-based service delivery planning, resource allocation, and local-level development strategies. This statistical product will also be the last to be produced at the lowest level of geography.

Stats SA remains committed to providing high-quality, reliable, and accessible official statistics, and will continue enhancing its statistical products to support South Africa’s developmental priorities.

Available resources

The following data files and supporting materials can be downloaded from the Stats SA website:

• Excel spreadsheets
• A technical note on the small area estimation methodology
• Electoral ward shapefiles
• Provincial maps comparing ward populations between 2011 and 2022
• District maps comparing ward populations between 2011 and 2022

The data can also be accessed interactively through SuperWeb and SuperCross platforms at https://superweb.statssa.gov.za/webapi