Following a contraction of 0,1% in the third quarter of 2024, the South African gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0,6% in the fourth quarter (October–December).¹ Growth was led by agriculture, finance and trade on the supply (production) side of the economy. Household spending led growth on the demand (expenditure) side.

Annually, the GDP grew by 0,6% in 2024 compared with 2023.

Agriculture, finance and trade record gains in the fourth quarter

Agriculture had the most significant positive impact on GDP growth on the supply side of the economy. Following a sharp decline in the third quarter, the industry rebounded by 17,2%, lifting GDP growth by 0,4 of a percentage point (Figure 1). This was mainly due to a rise in the production of field crops and animal products.

The finance, real estate & businesses services industry grew for an eighth consecutive quarter, with financial intermediation, real estate activities and other business services the largest positive contributors to growth.

The trade industry expanded on the back of increased retail, wholesale and motor trade sales. This reflected positively on the demand side of the economy, with household consumption spending rising in the fourth quarter.

Seven industries performed poorly, with manufacturing and transport, storage & communication the most significant negative contributors to growth. Manufacturing was mainly pulled lower by weaker production levels in the metals & machinery and automotive divisions. Transport, storage & communication recorded a fourth consecutive quarter of decline. The industry witnessed a pullback in land transport and transport support services.

Mining activity was down on weaker production levels for manganese ore, iron ore, gold, chromium ore, nickel and copper. Coal and platinum group metals were positive, but not enough to keep the industry above water.

Trade and mining turn to inventories to meet demand

The demand side of the economy – measured by expenditure on GDP – was mainly lifted by a rise in household consumption spending (Figure 2).

Households spent more on a range of products; most notably, clothing & footwear, food & non-alcoholic beverages, recreation & culture, and household goods. The data suggest that consumers might have more breathing space than they did a year ago. In real terms, households spent 2,3% more in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared with the fourth quarter of 2023. The trade industry increased its size by 1,6% over the same period.

The economy witnessed a R16,4 billion drawdown in inventories, in part due to the trade industry accelerating efforts to meet demand that exceeded supply. Mining also drew from its stockpiles to address a rise in export demand while production lagged, contributing to the overall drawdown in inventories.

Investment in infrastructure and other fixed assets (gross fixed capital formation) was weaker in the fourth quarter, mainly because of a decline in residential buildings, machinery & other equipment, and non-residential buildings.

2024 in review

The fourth quarter GDP release concludes the results for the calendar year. The South African economy was 0,6% larger in 2024 compared with 2023 (Figure 3).

The finance industry was the notable bright spot, pushing GDP growth higher by 0,8 of a percentage point (Figure 4). Electricity, gas & water, personal services and mining also expanded in 2024. On the downside, agriculture and trade were the most significant drags on growth.

For more information, download the latest GDP release, media presentation and Excel files here.

¹ The quarter-on-quarter rates are seasonally adjusted and in real (volume) terms (constant 2015 prices).

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