IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS

South Africa’s economy grew by a marginal 0,1%¹ in the fourth quarter (October–December), taking the annual growth rate for 2023 to 0,6%.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter was R1 158 billion. This is above the pre-COVID-19 reading of R1 150 billion, but still below the peak of R1 161 billion recorded in the third quarter of 2022 (Figure 1).

Performance in the fourth quarter a mixed bag

In the fourth quarter, six of the ten industries kept the economy in the green (Figure 2). The transport, storage & communication industry made the biggest positive impact, expanding by 2,9% and contributing 0,2 of a percentage point to the GDP growth. Increased economic activity was reported for all transport services across the industry.

Mining activity was up 2,4%, pushed higher by stronger production figures for platinum group metals, chromium ore, coal and diamonds. On the flipside, the heavyweights of iron ore and gold were down in the fourth quarter, according to the latest Mining: Production and sales release.²

Electricity, gas & water scored a second consecutive quarter of positive growth, expanding by 2,3%. The country experienced fewer days of loadshedding in the fourth quarter (63 days) compared with the third quarter (91 days)³, with the rise in electricity production and consumption reflecting positively in the GDP numbers.

The personal services industry was up on the back of stronger growth in healthcare and education. Finance, real estate & business services grew by 0,6%, pushed higher by financial intermediation, auxiliary activities, real estate and business services.

Manufacturing edged higher by 0,2%, lifted mainly by growth in transport equipment, food & beverages and wood, paper, publishing & printing.

On the downside, trade, agriculture, construction and government were weaker. Agriculture, forestry & fishing had a notably tough quarter, shrinking by 9,7%. This was on the back of weaker production figures for field crops (most notably, grain sorghum, hay, wheat, sugarcane and chicory root), horticulture products (most notably, viticulture and citrus fruits) and animal products (most notably, slaughtered pigs, poultry and eggs).

Finance, transport and personal services shine in 2023, while agriculture falters

The fourth quarter data concludes the results for the calendar year. The economy grew by 0,6% in 2023 after expanding by 1,9% in 2022 (Figure 3).

The finance, real estate & business services industry was the main star in 2023, growing by 1,8% and contributing 0,4 of a percentage point to the GDP growth (Figure 4). Personal services, transport, storage & communication, manufacturing, construction and government services also helped keep the economy in positive territory.

Construction saw its first positive year since 2016, expanding by 0,6%. Both mining and electricity, gas & water were down for a second year in a row.

Agriculture recorded its first annual contraction since 2019, shrinking by 12,2%. This is the biggest annual fall in agriculture production since 1995 (-19,9%).

For more information, download the latest GDP release, media presentation and Excel files here.

¹ The quarter-on-quarter rates are seasonally adjusted and in real (volume) terms (constant 2015 prices).

² Stats SA, Mining: Production and sales, December 2023, Table B (download here).

³ The Outlier & EskomSePush (access loadshedding data here).