IMPROVING LIVES THROUGH DATA ECOSYSTEMS

After a bumper month in March, Stats SA’s publication schedule was quieter in April. The statistical agency published 20 releases, many of which provide an update on the state of the economy.

Consumer inflation remains above 5%

Annual consumer inflation declined to 5,3% in March after climbing for the first two months of the year. The headline rate has trended between 5% and 6% since September 2023.

The categories with the highest annual price changes in March were miscellaneous goods & services, education, health, and housing & utilities. On a positive note, food inflation continued to soften, with the annual rate in March the lowest since September 2020. Bread & cereals; meat; milk, eggs & cheese; fruit; vegetables; sugar, sweets & desserts; and ‘other’ food products recorded lower annual rates in March.

Producer inflation has also maintained a narrow band, fluctuating in the 4% to 5% range since November 2023. Factory gate inflation was 4,6% in March, with food & beverages and petroleum & chemicals the most significant contributors.

Mining experiences a welcome surge

Seasonally adjusted mining production expanded by 5,0% between January and February, the largest month-on-month increase since March 2023. Production increased by 9,9% in the 12 months to February, the highest year-on-year print since July 2021. Iron ore and coal drove much of the upward momentum, while gold and manganese ore were softer.

Manufacturing was also stronger year-on-year in February. Production increased by 4,1%, mainly lifted by wood, paper, printing & publishing and food & beverages. All divisions recorded a positive month, except for the automotive sector that registered a decline.

Shoppers shied away from textiles & clothing stores, contributing to a 0,8% decrease in retail trade in February. Hardware, paint & glass recorded its 10th consecutive month of year-on-year decline. On the upside, general dealers registered positive gains, as well as stores specialising in household goods, pharmaceuticals & cosmetics, and food & beverages.

Other industries that recorded weaker year-on-year results in February include construction (buildings completed as reported by large municipalities), wholesale trade and road freight (Figure 1).

What to look forward to in May

Notable releases in May include the next Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) release on 14 May, covering employment and unemployment data for the first quarter of 2024. The 2023 General Household Survey (GHS) will be released on 23 May.

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