Key findings: Report-03-00-23 - South African Age-Sex Structure, 1996-2022: Is the Population Ageing?, 2022

The age and sex structure presented in the 2022 Census is consistent with expectations, suggesting that the data regarding age and sex is reasonable. This assessment is corroborated by Whipple's and the United Nations' joint age-sex accuracy index scores, which serve as metrics for evaluating the quality of reported single-year age distributions. Compositional distribution patterns revealed a bulge, suggesting dominance of the youth in the population structure. This pattern manifests at the national level, among black African and coloured population groups and in some of the provinces including Gauteng, Mpumalanga and Western Cape. Median age confirms that the national population is youthful (intermediate) at 28 years. Specifically, black Africans remain youthful, while Indians/Asians and white population are old according to standards. In 2022, Indian/Asian and white population groups observed a median age of 37 and 45 respectively. Sex ratio pattern indicated that there are slightly more females than males in the country, except in few cases; this observation was consistent by disaggregation. Sex ratio was 102 among Indian/Asian population in 2022. Old-age dependency ratios are high and increasing overtime. Eastern Cape (13), Limpopo and Free State at a ratio of 11 observed the highest old-age dependency ratios.

Nationally, distribution patterns of the elderly population aged 60 years and above revealed an increase in size over the years. The increase was marked among women relative to men and among Indian/Asian and white population groups. However, ageing index suggest that the number of older persons is less than the number of young persons in the country. Results by population group presented an ageing index of more than 100 amongst Indian/Asian (107) and white population group (215). This finding confirms that these populations are noticeably ageing relative to other population groups. Potential support ratio revealed a decrease over the period, suggesting a shrinking support base of population aged 15-64 on whom the elderly population can depend. The study concludes that the South African population remains youthful except for Indian/Asian, white population groups, and in Gauteng and Western Cape provinces. Given the rate of demographic processes of fertility, mortality and migration taking place in the country, the national population is expected to experience gradual ageing