Media Release, Mid –Year Population Estimates 2014

Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) estimates the population of South Africa to be 54 million as at July 2014, where about 30,0% of the population is aged younger than 15 years and approximately 8,4% (4,54 million) is 60 years or older. The Mid-year population estimates further indicate that approximately fifty-one per cent (approximately 27,64 million) of the population is female and the majority of the population are Black African (80,2%), approximately 43,33 million.  The proportion of elderly persons aged 60 and older is increasing over time and of those younger than 15 years, approximately 22,7% (3,66 million) live in KwaZulu-Natal and 18,8% (3,05 million) live in Gauteng.

The Mid- year estimates are an annual statistical publication produced by Stats SA and provides an estimate of the Population of South Africa every year in July.

According to the findings, Gauteng comprises the largest share of the South African population and a quarter of all South Africans, approximately 12,91 million people live in this province. KwaZulu-Natal is the has the second largest population, with 10,69 million people (19,8%) living in this province. With a population of approximately 1,17 million people (2,2%), Northern Cape remains the province with the smallest share of the South African population.

Based on the population estimation model, the estimated overall HIV prevalence rate is approximately 10,2% of the total South African population. The total number of people living with HIV is estimated at approximately 5,51 million in 2014. For adults aged 15–49 years, an estimated 16,8% of the population is HIV positive. Approximately one-fifth of South African women in their reproductive ages are HIV positive.

There has been a constant decline in the infant mortality rate (IMR), with an estimated IMR at 34,4 per 1 000 live births. Total life expectancy at birth in South Africa is improving and is estimated at 61,2 years in 2014. Life expectancy at birth for 2014 is estimated at 59,1 years for males and 63,1 years for females.

Migration is an important demographic process in shaping the age structure and distribution of the provincial population. For the period 2011–2016 it is estimated that approximately 241 758 people will migrate from the Eastern Cape; Limpopo is estimated to experience an out-migration of nearly 303 101 people. During the same period, Gauteng and Western Cape are estimated to experience the highest inflow of migrants of approximately 1 106 375 and 344 830 respectively

The cohort-component methodology is used to estimate the 2014 mid-year population of South Africa. Population projections were based on knowledge of population structure, rates of births, deaths and migration as well as assumptions of how they change.

The estimates cover all the residents of South Africa at the 2014 mid-year, and are based on the latest available information. Estimates may change as new data become available.

For further information please contact:

Mr Diego Iturralde




Prof Louis van Tonder


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