Before the slump in 2008/09 due to the global recession, manufacturing performed well, recording annual growth rates of 2,9%, 4,6% and 4,2% for 2005, 2006 and 2007 respectively. The recovery after the recession from 2010 to 2012 was sluggish, and 2013 showed anaemic annual growth of 1,3% to date. Factory output remains far from the levels achieved at the end of 2007 and beginning of 2008.
Manufacturing production slumped in September 2013, recording a year-on-year growth rate of -3,3% from a subdued 0,2% year-on-year growth in August 2013. This was the lowest growth rate recorded since July 2011, when strikes in key industries forced factory output to slump to -6,0% year-on-year. Figure 1 illustrates the performance of the manufacturing sector from 2005 to 2013.
Figure 1 – Manufacturing production, seasonally adjusted and trend
Seasonally adjusted total manufacturing production fell by 3,8% month-on-month in August 2013 and by 4,7% in September 2013. Apart from the woes of the automotive sector, each of the ten manufacturing divisions contracted month-on-month (seasonally adjusted) in September 2013.
The manufacturing industry, as measured by its nominal value, contributed 10,7% to the economy in the second quarter of 2013. Figure 4 shows manufacturing’s declining contribution to GDP from 2006 to 2013. The poor August and September 2013 manufacturing output resulted in a seasonally adjusted annualised decrease of 8,3% for the third quarter of 2013 compared with the previous quarter. GDP results for the third quarter of 2013 will be published on 26 November 2013.
Figure 4 – Contribution of manufacturing to GDP: 2006 – 2013